Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The transcript discusses investment commitments, portfolio acquisitions, etc. Key points: They originated $2 billion of new investment commitments in Q1, a 14% increase from Q1 2021. But that's total volume, not unit size. They mention that over two-thirds of commitments were to incumbent borrowers. They also mention the Annaly acquisition of $2.4 billion portfolio, with half funded by ARCC and Ivy Hill. But is that described as part of an upward drift in deal size? They say "we believe Ares' track record in making acquisitions continue to produce attractive and differentiated opportunities" and "we're excited about this transaction." But they don't compare it to past acquisitions in terms of size. They also mention that the portfolio has grown, but that's overall. No explicit statement that each new deal is larger than previous ones. They talk about being selective, but not about increasing unit size. They mention that the weighted average EBITDA of portfolio companies increased from $162M to $173M, but that's portfolio composition, not new deals. They also mention that they are seeing a slower pace of repayments, but that's not about deal size. There is no mention of "progressively larger" deals. The only possible is the Annaly acquisition, but they don't frame it as part of a trend. They say "we believe Ares' track record in making acquisitions continue to produce attractive and differentiated opportunities" but that's about quality, not size. So answer NO. Thus answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.