Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against recent past, real and recurring, early stage. Transcript: Jeff mentions strong performance, book-to-bill under 1.0 due to government shutdown, but orders received in October. Backlog steady at $67M. Then discusses various programs: Kratos agreement for four drones, XQ58 Valkyrie contains multiple EMCORE systems. Navy awarded additional business for Mark 48 torpedo, notified to nearly double production in FY'24. Expect significant upside for EN-300 products, return of orders for MTSBs, first low rate initial production shipments of advanced targeting system. Received additional production orders for precision guided munitions program, expect transition into growing yearly order pattern. Business from Ukraine expected to expand. Nearing completion of preproduction units for Raytheon's advanced EO/IR pods. Expect to complete MMS program in June. Non-recurring engineering funding at least $7M, 70% booked. L3Harris terminating TAIMU contract, but three high confidence programs could offset at least $10M of $14M expected TAIMU revenue. Does any of this convey that the size of individual deals/orders is escalating? The Mark 48 doubling production is about volume increase, not necessarily larger individual orders. The Kratos agreement for four drones - multiple systems per drone, but that's a specific program. No explicit comparison of deal size to past. The "growing yearly order pattern" for precision guided munitions suggests more orders, but not necessarily larger each. No mention of average order size increasing, or new customers starting at higher levels. The TAIMU loss is a negative. The offsetting programs are described as high confidence but not necessarily larger than past. No explicit statement that the company is landing bigger deals now than before. The focus is on volume and new programs, not on unit size escalation. So answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.