Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, already real and recurring, early stage. Scan transcript for statements about deals, contracts, projects, customers, sites, programs. Look for phrases like "larger", "bigger", "more", "record", "increasing", "growing", "expansion", "new commitments", "additional", "long-term", "FID", "capacity", "volumes", "customers", "offtake", "HOAs", "equity partners", "projects". Key areas: Lake Charles LNG, Nederland expansion, Marcus Hook, Gulf Run, processing plants, carbon capture, ammonia, petchem. Management mentions: "we entered into three non-binding HOAs related to the long term LNG offtake from this project for an aggregate of 3.6 million metric tons per annum." That's a specific deal size. But is it compared to past? They mention earlier they had signed up 8-9 million tonnes? Actually they said "signed up a lot, 8 million or 9 million tonnes" but that was before DOE denial. Now they have HOAs for 3.6 million. Not necessarily larger. Look for explicit comparison: "we continue to export more NGLs than any other company" - that's market share, not size of individual deals. Check for "record volumes" - that's volume, not unit size of engagements. Check for "expansion" - they FID-ed expansion to NGL export capacity at Nederland, adding up to 250,000 bpd. That's a project, but is it larger than previous expansions? Not stated. Check for "Gulf Run" - they added additional long-term customer volume commitments through Zone 2, and are fully subscribed beginning Jan 2025. They are in discussions to add ~1 Bcf capacity via compression. That's about capacity, not necessarily larger individual contracts. Check for "we continue to evaluate the necessity and potential timing of adding another processing plant" - that's just evaluation. Check for "we are in discussions to add approximately 1 Bcf of capacity" - that's a project. Check for "we have very limited available capacity in the near term and are fully subscribed" - that's about utilization. Check for "we continue to pursue FID on an optimization project at Marcus Hook" - not size. Check for "we expect frac 8 to be mechanically complete" - that's a plant.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.