Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for a comparison against the company's own recent past, already real and recurring, and early stage. In the transcript, management talks about acquisitions, organic growth, pipeline, etc. But the question is about the size of individual deals/orders/contracts etc. For a restaurant franchisor, the "deals" might be franchise agreements, new store openings, or acquisitions. But the question specifically asks about "successive engagements of the same kind" coming in at progressively larger size. That would mean, for example, that each new franchise deal is larger than the previous one, or each new acquisition is larger, or each new store opening is larger in scope. Looking at the transcript: Andy talks about acquisitions. He says "we spent almost $1 billion in the past year" and mentions Twin Peaks ($300M) and Fazoli's ($130M). But he also says "I don't see that scale of acquisitions happening this year." So that suggests acquisitions are not escalating in size; they are actually scaling down. He says "we are now at a size and scale, but we do not need to acquire additional brands." So that is not about progressively larger deals. He talks about organic growth: "more than 850 new locations in our pipeline" and "potential 33% unit growth and 50% EBITDA growth." But that is about number of units, not size of each unit. He mentions "industry leading new store AUVs in the range of $5 million to $6.5 million going as high as $12 million" for Twin Peaks. But that is a description of the brand's AUV, not a comparison of increasing size over time. He talks about the manufacturing business: "our factory today sits at approximately 30% capacity" and "has significant wide space to grow the manufacturing of additional items." That is about capacity, not about larger orders. He talks about synergies and cross-selling, but not about individual deals getting bigger.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.