Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, already real and recurring, and early stage. In the transcript, management discusses Avanti contracts. They mention three large contracts signed in June, August, September. They say "three large potentially highly profitable and long-term new contracts" and "We believe that each of these contracts would be amongst the largest in the company’s history." That suggests they are large, but is there a comparison against own past? They say "amongst the largest in the company’s history" - that implies they are larger than typical past contracts. But is there an upward drift? They list three contracts signed over a few months, each large. However, they don't explicitly say that the size of contracts is escalating over time, i.e., each new one is bigger than the last. They just say each is among the largest. Also, they mention "despite the long sales cycle" and that these are new contracts. But they don't convey that the unit size is escalating progressively. They also don't mention that these are part of a pattern of increasing size; they just say they are large. Also, they don't say that the reported results still reflect smaller instances; they say "we would expect to see significant revenue growth from Avanti going forward." That suggests future growth, but not necessarily that the escalation is early. Also, they don't mention that further instances at new larger size are forming. So it's not clear. Other parts: They discuss portfolio rotation, but that's about investments, not about the company's own business of investing? The question is about the company's own repeatable business. The company is a BDC, so its business is investing in loans. But the question asks about "deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs" - for a BDC, it might be about the size of investments? But management doesn't talk about the size of individual investments escalating. They talk about deploying capital into various investments, but not about the size of each deal increasing over time. They mention "we deployed capital into eight investments investing $39 million" - that's total, not per deal. No comparison. Thus, the only possible is Avanti.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.