Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management describe that the company's successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size? That is, does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for any statement from management that indicates an escalation in the unit size of their repeatable business. The transcript includes discussions about various segments: federal, state/local, international, commercial (energy, marketing). We need to see if management says that the size of individual contracts or projects is increasing compared to their own past. Let's scan the transcript for relevant statements. - Sudhakar Kesavan: "The pickup in business in January and February that we highlighted in the last quarter's call continued in March and for the first quarter, we reported year-on-year growth in all of our client categories." That's about growth, not necessarily size of individual deals. - "Proposal and award activity in the federal government space increased progressively throughout the quarter." That's about activity, not size. - "The work for state and local government’s clients continued apace, and we were pleased by the positive revenue comparisons in our international government business." Again, revenue growth. - "In the commercial part of our business, the energy markets group was a standout performer again this quarter, reflecting in large part the leadership position that ICF has attained in developing and implementing energy efficiency programs for utilities across the country." That's about performance, not size. - "ICF Olson continues to differentiate ICF within our core client set. Since the acquisition, we have won over $75 million in revenue that neither firm could have won independently." That's about cross-selling, not necessarily larger individual deals.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.