Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management describe that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for evidence in the transcript. Management mentions a $20.5 million order received in early 2024, which is a new configuration weapon site order. They also mention a $6 million follow-on order in Q4. They talk about backlog of $55 million, record level. They mention that they expect additional follow-on orders for both products. They also mention that they are seeing an uptick in new opportunities from other countries and ministries of defense. They mention that the thermal weapon site program is hitting full rate production, and that they are seeing benefit from new weapons selections. They also mention that they are taking share from competitors. But the key is: does management convey that the individual size of what they land has grown versus their own past? They mention a $20.5 million order, which is a new configuration. They also mention that they expect to ship triple the volume of weapon sites in 2024. That suggests volume increase, not necessarily larger individual orders. They also mention that they are seeing new customers and projects, but not necessarily that each new order is larger than previous ones. The question specifically asks about "successive engagements of the same kind" coming in at "progressively larger size". That means each new order for the same product is larger than the previous one. Management does not explicitly say that. They talk about a record backlog, but that could be due to more orders, not larger orders. They mention a $20.5 million order, but they also had a $6 million follow-on. They don't compare the size of individual orders over time. They also mention that they are seeing new opportunities, but that's about pipeline, not actual signed deals. They mention that they expect to announce new customers, but that's future.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.