Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. Transcript: Brian Mueller discusses three platforms. For Orbis: "We have expanded to 27 partners." "We opened 10 new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites since June 30, 2010" (typo, likely 2020). "We have signed contracts with new partners in the Southern California market and in New York City market." "We will open up medical lab science programs with two new partners." "The goal is to have over 40 locations by the end of 2022, 50 locations by the end of 2023, and eventually, grow to 80 locations." That's about number of sites, not size per site. But also: "Most locations start with the ABSN program, but most have the ability and desire to add additional programs. Sites will eventually accommodate between 250 and 1,000 students in multiple programs." That's about potential, not current escalation. Also: "We continue to work with Harding University on the rollout of multiple Orbis sites, as well as a fully developed model for some of their Master’s degree programs. This is the first more comprehensive contract that may be replicated once it becomes successful." That suggests a larger contract than previous ones? But it's described as "first more comprehensive contract" - that could be a larger scope. But is it presented as part of an upward drift? It says "may be replicated" - so it's a potential, not yet recurring. Also it's with Harding University, which is a partner. But is this a successive engagement of the same kind? It's a more comprehensive contract, but it's the first one. Not a pattern. Also for GCU online: "GCU has historically put a priority on new program development" - not about size. For traditional campus: "GCU’s goal is now to have 40,000 students on its traditional campus" - that's a target, not current. No mention of deals getting bigger. The only possible is the Harding contract, but it's described as "first" and "may be replicated" - so not yet a pattern. Also it's not clear if it's larger in size or just more comprehensive. But management doesn't compare to past deals. Thus answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.