Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. Search transcript for mentions of deal size, contracts, projects, etc. Management discusses PRT (pension risk transfers), structured settlements, longevity reinsurance, etc. They mention "Volume growth in RIS away from PRT was very strong, with more than $5 billion of longevity, reinsurance sales and more than $3 billion of structured settlements." That's volume, not size per deal. They mention "Pension risk transfers totaled $5.3 billion for the year, the third largest annual total in MetLife’s history." That's annual total, not per deal size. They mention "a strong pipeline of new opportunities in 2024 and beyond." That's pipeline, not necessarily larger deals. They also mention "we added transactions worth approximately $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter" for PRT. That's a quarterly total, not per deal size. No mention of average deal size increasing, or that new deals are individually larger than before. They talk about growth in PFOs, sales, etc., but that's volume. Also, they mention "we have repurchased roughly $0.5 billion of MET common shares in the month of January." That's capital return, not business deals. No evidence of escalation in unit size. So answer NO. Check if any analyst asks about that? No. Thus answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.