Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks about deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs. The company is MGIC Investment Corp, a mortgage insurance company. They write new insurance policies. The "engagements" would be new insurance written (NIW) or perhaps the size of policies. But the question is about unit size escalation. In the transcript, management talks about new business written, insurance in force, persistency, etc. They mention that new business written in Q3 was $14.1 billion, about flat to same quarter last year. They expect to write about $48 billion for full year. They talk about market share, purchase vs refi. But do they say that the average size of each new policy or each deal is getting bigger? They mention that the mix of business is shifting, e.g., more 95% LTV, but that's about product mix, not necessarily unit size. They also mention that the effective premium yield is trending down, which suggests lower premiums per policy, not larger. They talk about persistency increasing, which means policies stay longer, but that's not about new engagements being larger. They don't mention that each new contract is bigger than before. They talk about volume, but not unit size. They also mention that they are writing more purchase loans vs refis, but that's about type, not size. There is no mention of average loan size increasing or that they are landing larger deals. The question is about successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Management does not convey that. They talk about stable or slightly increasing new business volume, but not that each individual policy or contract is larger. They also mention that they expect persistency to increase, but that's about existing policies staying longer, not new ones being bigger. So the answer is NO. Thus, answer NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.