Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management describe that the company's successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size? That is, does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago? We need to look for a comparison against the company's own recent past, already real and recurring, and early stage. In the transcript, management discusses several areas: ICP (liquid biopsy), Pathology services, IV-Cell, HemeScreen. For ICP: They mention the Perkin Elmer partnership. But is that a larger engagement than previous ones? They say "The co-marketing agreement recently announced is the first step in building a strong ongoing relationship with Perkin Elmer." They estimate 2019 revenues between several hundreds to several million dollars. But they don't compare to previous deals. They say "This is not the first indicator that we have a strong competitive and valuable technology" but no comparison of size. They also mention "The agreement with Perkin Elmer is the first of several potential collaborations with other companies that we're working on" - but that's about number of collaborations, not size. For Pathology services: They say "our revenues from pathology services growing close to 50% from the previous quarter." That's growth in revenue, but not necessarily larger individual engagements. They say "With a substantial pipeline of new customers and strong conversion rates, we expect a continued rapid growth" - that's volume, not size per customer. They don't mention that each new customer is bigger than before. For IV-Cell: They mention commercialization proceeding, but no mention of deal size escalation. For HemeScreen: They say "Since the launch of the test in our lab, only two weeks ago, we've already received numerous orders -- we've already run numerous orders received from physicians." That's volume, not size per order. They estimate revenues in excess of $1 million in 2019, but no comparison to previous. Overall, management does not explicitly state that the size of individual deals, orders, contracts, or customers is increasing.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.