Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. Look for comparisons against own past, real and recurring, early stage. In the transcript, management discusses various projects, acquisitions, IPP strategy. They mention shifting from selling projects at NTP to keeping them as IPP, which changes revenue recognition but not necessarily unit size. They talk about acquiring Branston (50 MW) and Emeren (2.5 GW pipeline). They mention 110 MW of projects in Poland and Hungary that they decided to keep instead of sell. They talk about 400 MW pipeline sales for 2023, 200 MW IPP by end of 2023. But is there a statement that the size of individual deals or projects is escalating compared to their own past? They mention that they are growing, but not specifically that each new instance is bigger. They talk about acquisitions, but those are different kinds. They mention that they have a pipeline of 4 GW by end of 2023, but that's total pipeline, not unit size. They mention that they are targeting to monetize 400 MW in 2023, but that's volume. They don't explicitly say that the average size of projects they are landing now is larger than before. They do mention that they are shifting from selling to IPP, which changes the nature of revenue but not necessarily unit size. They also mention that they are acquiring Emeren with 2.5 GW pipeline, but that's an acquisition, not a successive engagement of the same kind. They also mention that they are building 200 MW IPP, but that's a target. They don't compare to past project sizes. They mention that they are seeing higher PPA prices, but that's price increase, not unit size. They also mention that they are withholding 110 MW from sale to keep as IPP, which is a strategic shift, not an escalation in size. There is no statement like "our average project size has increased from X to Y" or "we are now signing deals that are twice as large as before." The closest might be that they are acquiring larger pipelines, but that's not the same as successive engagements of the same kind. They also mention that they are expanding into new markets, but that's not unit size. So I think the answer is NO. They do not convey that the unit size of their repeatable business is escalating.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.