Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. Look for statements about deal size, customer size, scope, etc., compared to past. In the transcript, Jurgi says: "we do see a lot of appetite in particular, and I think we've been quite clear about that. But regarding HRD testing..." Not about size. Ross says: "I would say, on the new business side, it's a really interesting period for us. We're seeing, I would say, unprecedented activity with very large customers. So the size of certain RFPs or quotes are much bigger than what we have seen in the past and some quite significant." That is a comparison: size of RFPs/quotes much bigger than past. That indicates larger deals. Also "unprecedented activity with very large customers" suggests pattern. Also "the types and the players that we're discussing with" - but is it already real? He says "we're seeing" and "the size of certain RFPs or quotes" - that is in negotiation, not yet signed? He says "we're seeing unprecedented activity" and "the size of certain RFPs or quotes are much bigger" - that is about current proposals, not yet signed. But he also says "we've seen a number of the notes from peers and, frankly, haven't seen that same level of volatility." That is about demand. The key is whether it's already real and recurring. He says "we're seeing" - present tense, but it's about RFPs and quotes, which are not yet signed. However, he also says "I would say, overall, it's still quite a healthy environment for us." But the specific statement about larger size is about RFPs/quotes, which are in the pipeline, not yet signed. Also he says "we've seen a number of the notes from peers" - not about size. Later, Jurgi says: "we do see traction. You may have seen our press release with Ambry Genetics, where we are partnering, so that we will be able to eventually support all their bioinformatic needs. And we see the same traction with many other reference labs and central labs in the U.S. right now, Mark." That is about traction, not size. Also Ross says: "I think it's interesting, if you look again at our activity levels in the business, it's interesting the number of players in the realm that Jorge spoke to in the U.S. and ex-U.S. that are all coming to, I think, a similar conclusion at or around the same time, right.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.