Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes successive engagements of the same kind coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago? We need to look for any statement about escalation of unit size. The transcript includes discussion about export and foundry coke initiatives, and about CMT logistics. There is mention of "positive market dynamics" and "our entry into these markets was timely." But does management say that the size of individual contracts or orders is increasing? They talk about selling cargos, being fully booked, and working on filling order book for next year. They mention that they are selling cargos at a time, and that they are in active discussions. They do not mention that the average size of orders has increased, or that customers are committing to larger volumes per contract. They talk about volumes and pricing, but not about unit size escalation. Specifically, when asked about 2022 order book, Mike Rippey says: "we're in active discussions now. We have sold a few cargos into 2022. The sales that we make during 2022, and we're not prepared to address them fully today may take the form of annual contract commitments, they may take the form of quarterly commitments, or they may more simply be a cargo at a time. And that's what we did for all of 2021. Basically, cargo commitments or quarterly commitments." This suggests that the structure of commitments is similar to before, not necessarily larger. No mention of larger size. There is also discussion about CMT volumes being up, but that is about throughput volumes, not about individual contracts being larger. The price kicker based on API2 is a price increase, not a size increase. Thus, there is no evidence of progressive escalation of unit size. The answer is NO. We must answer only YES or NO.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.