Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for evidence in the transcript. Management talks about deployments, originations, pipeline, etc. But the key is whether the size of individual deals is escalating. Let's scan the transcript. Stuart Aronson: "Gross capital deployments in Q1 totaled $83.6 million, which eclipsed our previous record for the highest level of gross deployments in any first quarter in our history." That's about total deployments, not necessarily individual deal size. He says "eclipsed our previous record for the highest level of gross deployments in any first quarter" – that's about total volume, not unit size. He also says: "Of this amount, $69.5 million was funded into 6 new originations and the remaining $14.1 million was funded into add-ons of existing portfolio investments." So 6 new originations for $69.5 million, average about $11.6 million per deal. But no comparison to past average deal size. He mentions "we continue to successfully utilize our joint venture with STRS Ohio" and "we transferred $82.7 million in investments to the STRS JV, including 6 new deals, 5 add-ons and the remaining portion of 3 deals previously transferred" – again, not about individual deal size. He says "the market remains quite busy, and our pipeline for future deal flow remains strong." But that's about volume. He says "we have visibility for over 8 additional mandated new deals and add-on transactions" – again, not about size. He says "the BDC has turned down 4 origination opportunities during the first quarter due to capacity constraints." That's about capacity, not size. He says "we are highly focused on sourcing higher-yielding opportunities" – that's about yield, not size. He says "the additional capital we raised late last year and the incremental contribution to the JV and the full effect of earnings from the deployments in Q1 provide a strong tailwind" – again, not about individual deal size.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.