Sequential re-rating: management describes the same offering landing bigger the second and third time around
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that successive engagements of the same kind are coming in at progressively larger size. The question asks: does management convey that the deals, orders, contracts, projects, customers, sites, or programs it is landing NOW are individually bigger, broader, or longer than the ones it was landing for the same offering not long ago, so that each new instance of essentially the same business is worth more to the company than the last? We need to look for evidence in the transcript. Management discusses various projects, expansions, etc. Let's scan. Alan Armstrong mentions: "we continue to deliver on multiple fronts, including bringing online key projects such as lighting South, which we are targeting to bring into full-service earlier than projected and importantly, before the winter heating season. While projects, such as REA, remain in the execution phase, we've continued to receive first in demand full projects on the Transco system. Our 2 recently announced Mid-Atlantic expansions will add a little more than 500 million a day of capacity on the system. And in the coming weeks, we expect to secure precedent agreements for another system expansion, bringing a total of 3 incremental expansion projects on Transco just during the last half of '21." This indicates they are adding projects, but does it say the size of each project is larger than before? They mention "2 recently announced Mid-Atlantic expansions" and "another system expansion" - but no comparison of size to past projects. They also mention "we expect to announce a system expansion in the basin soon" for Northeast gathering. But again, no explicit statement that these are larger than previous ones. Later, Alan says: "And the question of how many we have, we keep the slide updated in there about the number of projects in development in our appendix. And it always looks like it's the same old slide, but in reality, that we are moving projects from development into execution. And we have new projects flowing in there that are keeping that pipeline very full. So I will just tell you, we don't see much backing off in the way of opportunity for expansions of our transmission systems." This is about number of projects, not size.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| AKYA | Akoya Biosciences, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-07 | C+ |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| CYBR | CyberArk Software Ltd. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-04 | B+ |
| ASAN | Asana, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2021-09-01 | B+ |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
AKYA · Q2 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing a clear pattern of escalating project sizes in the translational/clinical space. Brian notes a migration from exploratory studies (reasonable size) to larger retrospective studies and even larger retrospective-prospective ongoing clinical studies, with projects moving "further and further downstream.
ASAN · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES Management describes exactly this pattern. Dustin notes the company is “closing larger deals and expanding seats across departments and geographies quickly in large organizations,” and that the growth in the >$50k cohort “reflected an acceleration in our largest enterprise customers.
SGRY · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company's SUCCESSIVE ENGAGEMENTS OF THE SAME KIND ARE COMING IN AT PROGRESSIVELY LARGER SIZE? YES The transcript shows management describing exactly this pattern for physician recruiting cohorts. Wayne notes that the 2022 cohorts are “no exception to this trend, bringing more cases with a higher overall net revenue per case than our 2021 cohorts did in the same period last year.