Sizing the constraint out loud: management quantifies how much business its own limits are costing right now
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2017 call → NOWe need answer only YES or NO. Need determine if management puts size on gap between what company doing and could be doing right now due to internal limit. Look for specific quantified statement about unserved demand due to internal capacity. Transcript: mentions supply chain issues in Europe, temporary supply chain issues related to Wet Shave footprint project. They say "somewhat below our expectations, due to softness in Europe, driven in part by temporary supply chain issues related to our Wet Shave footprint project, as well as lower promotional activities." Later "supply chain issues we saw in Europe in third quarter. We may have a bit of an overhang in fourth quarter." No specific size of lost sales? They mention "around five of the quarter (48:46) shortfall" maybe? Let's examine. In Q&A: "Maybe just a quick one about the European supply chain impact, is there any way you could quantify that? ..." David: "I'm not sure, I have – it was around five of the quarter (48:46) shortfall, and it was a product of two or three different projects, the timing issues that all kind of – that kind of aggregated to a pretty severe supply chain issue. We think it's mainly a Q3 issue, but we might have a little hangover going into Q4." This is management quantifying shortfall due to internal supply chain issue. Is that a gap between what company doing and could be doing right now? Yes, they say sales shortfall around five (million? percent?) in quarter due to supply chain issues. Demand real? It's lost sales due to inability to supply. Internal limit? Supply chain issues related to Wet Shave footprint project. Material? Around $5 million? Need assess. Company quarterly sales $638M. "around five of the quarter" likely $5 million? That's less than 1% - trivial? But they say "severe supply chain issue" but quantified as around five. Is that material? Probably not material relative to company. But question asks "material relative to company as it stands" - $5M on $638M is 0.8%, not large. However maybe "around five" means 5%? Let's parse: "it was around five of the quarter (48:46) shortfall" The transcript has "(48:46)" likely garbled. Could be "around five million of the quarter shortfall"? Or "around five percent"? Need infer.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHF | WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-10 | B+ |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
WHF · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business not captured due to i...
AOSL · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is: Does management put a size on the gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now? Specifically, a quantified statement about business they're currently not...
ESS · Q2 2018 → NOWe need to determine if management on this call sizes a gap between what the company is doing and what it could be doing right now due to an internal limit, with specific quantification. The question asks: "does management PUT A SIZE ON THE GAP BETWEEN WHAT THE COMPANY IS DOING AND WHAT IT COULD BE DOING RIGHT NOW — that is, does management volunteer a specific, quantified or explicitly sized statement about business the company is CURRENTLY NOT CAPTURING because of a limit inside the company, rather than because of a lack of demand?" We need to look for any instance where management quantifies a shortfall due to internal capacity, such as occupancy, supply, or ability to serve demand. The transcript discusses strong demand, occupancy strategy, supply constraints, etc. But we need to see if they size a gap. Key points: They talk about occupancy being lower intentionally to push rents. They mention that they are favoring market rents over occupancy, so they are deliberately leaving some occupancy on the table. But is that a "limit inside the company"? It's a strategic choice, not a capacity limit. They also discuss supply constraints in the market, but that's external. They talk about development yields compressing, but that's about new development. They mention that they have not acquired properties due to tight cap rates, but that's investment decisions. They talk about Prop 10 and rent control, but that's regulatory. They mention that they have a strong demand and job growth, but no specific sizing of unserved demand due to internal limits. They mention that they are pushing rents at slightly lower occupancy, which will benefit 2019. That is a trade-off, not a gap. They also mention that they have a preferred equity program with $398 million outstanding, but that's not about unserved demand. They talk about supply in Seattle being higher, but that's external. They mention that they have a strong balance sheet and liquidity. No where do they say "we could have rented X more units if we had them" or "we have Y demand that we can't serve because of our own capacity." They talk about occupancy being at 96.5% and they are intentionally lowering it to push rents. That is not a capacity limit; it's a pricing strategy. They also mention that they have a development pipeline, but that's future. Thus, no specific sizing of an internal limit causing unserved demand.