Sold before it exists: the company is already taking committed orders or reservations for output it cannot yet produce
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2021 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes counterparties having already committed to take output/product/capacity/service that the company is not yet able to deliver. The key is: commitments are real and already made, and the ability to supply does not yet fully exist, with the gap being closed now. Also, the commitments are large relative to current business. From the transcript: Thomas Speidel mentions the ChargePost, a new product. He says: "We already have a first contract signed for the ChargePost with a strategic customer who does not wish to be named at this time. The initial order is about 50 Units and it will be supplied in Europe as early as 2022, so already this year. And the customer has plans to purchase more than 10,000 units over the next few years." So there is a signed contract for 50 units, and plans for more. The ChargePost is a new product, not yet launched? He says "we will launch new products in 2022. In the charging area, the launch of the CME mobile battery based solution that we call the ChargePost is particularly worthy of mention." So it's a new product, not yet in production? He says "The ChargePost is by no means a replacement for the ChargeBox. It's rather a strategic complement for different use cases with its respective advantages." And "We already have a first contract signed for the ChargePost with a strategic customer... The initial order is about 50 Units and it will be supplied in Europe as early as 2022." So they have a contract for a product that is being launched this year. Is the ability to supply it not yet existing? They are launching it, so they are building it. They have a contract for 50 units. That seems like a commitment. But is it large relative to current business? They have 186 units sold in 2021, and guidance for 400-500 units in 2022. 50 units is not huge, but the customer plans to purchase more than 10,000 over next few years. However, the question is about commitments already made, not plans. The initial order is 50 units. That is a commitment. But is the company not yet able to deliver? They are launching the product, so they are ramping up. They have a manufacturing plant in Europe with capacity. They are also building a U.S. plant. But the specific product is new. However, they have a contract for 50 units, and they will supply in 2022.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
GOGO · Q1 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output, product, capacity, or service that the company is not yet able to deliver? YES Management describes real commitments (Delta >600, IAG 130+, Shareco 50, Air Canada wide-body fleet, total 2Ku awarded >1000) already made by counterparties. They also state the company is not yet able to deliver at scale ("begin the enviable task of installing the 1000 2Ku awarded aircraft", "we expect to install the majority of our awarded aircraft by the end of 2018", "STCs... will keep us on track to exceed our 75 2Ku installation target this year", "supply chain is there", "aggressive STC program...
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver? Like a backlog of things they haven't built yet. YES The transcript shows management describing a $11.3 billion contracted revenue backlog (more than doubled) with customers having "voted with their wallets," alongside 13 systems currently in deployment (plus 6 fully ramped) that will take roughly 18 months to acceptance.
BXP · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes counterparties that have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver, like pre-leased developments that aren't built...YES The transcript shows multiple instances where management describes counterparties having already signed leases for space in developments that have not yet been completed or even commenced construction.