Sold before it exists: the company is already taking committed orders or reservations for output it cannot yet produce
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2016 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes counterparties already committed to take output, product, capacity, or service that the company is not yet able to deliver. The essence: commitments are real and already made, and the ability to supply does not yet fully exist, with the gap being closed now. Also, the commitments are large relative to current business. Scan the transcript for any mention of commitments, contracts, offtake, reservations, etc., for something under construction. Key points: The company is building natural gas plants, solar projects, pipelines (Atlantic Coast Pipeline, Sabal Trail). Are there commitments for these? For pipelines, typically there are capacity commitments from shippers. The transcript mentions that Atlantic Coast Pipeline is fully subscribed? Actually, the question from analyst Shar Pourreza: "I think that it's obviously now fully subscribed. So is there sort of a viewpoint on when and if you would look to upsize it..." That is an analyst's statement, not management's. Management response: "Shar, we need to get through the FERC process for the existing status or investment of the pipeline. We expect to receive a scheduling order soon and anticipate the FERC order in 2017. So I think discussions about the future around that pipeline will be better served 2017, 2018 as we continue to progress the existing project." Management does not affirm that it is fully subscribed. They just say they need to get through FERC process. So that's not a clear commitment. What about Sabal Trail? It received FERC approval, construction to begin. No mention of commitments. What about the NCEMPA acquisition? That's a contract for wholesale power. The transcript mentions "higher wholesale margins, primarily due to the long-term contract associated with the NCEMPA acquisition in the prior year." That is a contract for existing capacity? NCEMPA is a municipal power agency that bought a stake in a nuclear plant? Actually, Duke acquired NCEMPA's interest? Let's see: "the long-term contract associated with the NCEMPA acquisition" - that is a contract to supply power to NCEMPA? But that is for existing generation? The acquisition was completed in prior year, so the capacity exists. Not a case of selling something not yet built. What about the Citrus County combined cycle plant? Under construction.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
GOGO · Q1 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output, product, capacity, or service that the company is not yet able to deliver? YES Management describes real commitments (Delta >600, IAG 130+, Shareco 50, Air Canada wide-body fleet, total 2Ku awarded >1000) already made by counterparties. They also state the company is not yet able to deliver at scale ("begin the enviable task of installing the 1000 2Ku awarded aircraft", "we expect to install the majority of our awarded aircraft by the end of 2018", "STCs... will keep us on track to exceed our 75 2Ku installation target this year", "supply chain is there", "aggressive STC program...
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver? Like a backlog of things they haven't built yet. YES The transcript shows management describing a $11.3 billion contracted revenue backlog (more than doubled) with customers having "voted with their wallets," alongside 13 systems currently in deployment (plus 6 fully ramped) that will take roughly 18 months to acceptance.
BXP · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes counterparties that have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver, like pre-leased developments that aren't built...YES The transcript shows multiple instances where management describes counterparties having already signed leases for space in developments that have not yet been completed or even commenced construction.