Sold before it exists: the company is already taking committed orders or reservations for output it cannot yet produce
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2023 call → NOWe need to determine if the transcript describes a situation where counterparties have already committed to take output, product, capacity, or service that the company is not yet able to deliver. That is, the company has sold something it hasn't built yet, and is racing to build it. Let's analyze the transcript. The company is IMAX. They discuss signings for new IMAX systems. They have 84 signings year-to-date, far more than 47 in all of 2022. They talk about installations. They have 20 installations in Q2. They mention that signings are for new systems, and they are installing them. They talk about the backlog. They mention that they are on track to deliver significant growth in system signings, installations, etc. But the question is specifically about commitments for output that the company cannot yet deliver. In this case, IMAX signs deals with exhibitors to install IMAX systems. The signings are commitments from exhibitors to take IMAX systems. The company then needs to install them. The installations are the delivery. Are they behind? They have a backlog. They say "we remain on track to deliver significant growth in system signings, installations, global box office and adjusted EBITDA for the full year." They also say "installations are ramping" and "we more than doubled installations in Q2 over Q1 of '23 with 20 in the period." They talk about the backlog being worked through. They mention that they have a backlog of installations. They say "we used to say that it was two to three years to work through our backlog, I would say we haven't done that calculation, so I don't know. But I would say of our signings this year, the number that are turning into installs this year feels to me a little higher than it's been in the past." So they are installing them. But the question is about commitments for output that the company is not yet able to deliver. The signings are commitments from exhibitors to take IMAX systems. The company has to build and install those systems. Are they behind? They have a backlog, but they are working through it.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
GOGO · Q1 2016 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output, product, capacity, or service that the company is not yet able to deliver? YES Management describes real commitments (Delta >600, IAG 130+, Shareco 50, Air Canada wide-body fleet, total 2Ku awarded >1000) already made by counterparties. They also state the company is not yet able to deliver at scale ("begin the enviable task of installing the 1000 2Ku awarded aircraft", "we expect to install the majority of our awarded aircraft by the end of 2018", "STCs... will keep us on track to exceed our 75 2Ku installation target this year", "supply chain is there", "aggressive STC program...
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that counterparties have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver? Like a backlog of things they haven't built yet. YES The transcript shows management describing a $11.3 billion contracted revenue backlog (more than doubled) with customers having "voted with their wallets," alongside 13 systems currently in deployment (plus 6 fully ramped) that will take roughly 18 months to acceptance.
BXP · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes counterparties that have already committed to take output that the company is not yet able to deliver, like pre-leased developments that aren't built...YES The transcript shows multiple instances where management describes counterparties having already signed leases for space in developments that have not yet been completed or even commenced construction.