Sold out of itself: management is turning demand away today because the company cannot supply it, and the fix is already
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2023 call → NOWe need answer YES or NO based only transcript. Need assess three criteria. Transcript: Todd Becker discusses demand for 60% protein: "we continue to see strong demand for our ultra-high protein products. We are nearing some commercial agreements on 60% protein... We have sold some 60% protein commercially in smaller beginning quantities and are in the process of finishing some commercial feed trials with some larger potential customers and have begun price negotiations for a larger share of the recipes and rations that they have. As with any new product brought to market, we are executing the necessary steps to develop a large-scale program, including setting up a global supply chain, and importantly, we are making sure we get paid for what the product is worth. We can continue to believe we are on track to convert 20% to 30% of our portfolio to 60-pro sales as we exit '24 and expand that in '25. Our current discussions are indicating strong demand for these higher protein levels. While we all want it to happen today, we believe this is not a matter of if, but a matter of when." Also later: "we have enough identified demand and in discussions that could take all of it. If they all call today, we have some work to do to ramp up, but that's actually... So we have 50 pro on for the rest of the year. We've got things committed in pet for the rest of the year. So we have a team that constantly works every day with global demand to play 60 pro and again, it's not a matter of if, it's going to be a matter of when and it's going to be a matter of how fast and as I said, I'll say it one more time, we have enough identified demand to take all of our product. We just got to get it to that next point." Does this convey current failing to serve demand it already has? They have "identified demand" that could take all of product, but not yet buying? They are in negotiations, price negotiations, commercial feed trials. They have not yet turned away orders. They are "nearing agreements" not actual buyers being turned away. They have sold some 60% commercially in smaller quantities. But they are not meeting demand? They say "we all want it to happen today" and "we have enough identified demand" but "we just got to get it to that next point." That sounds like demand is potential/identified, not unserved actual orders.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRBR | BellRing Brands, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-21 | B+ |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| PI | Impinj, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-08 | B+ |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| JBHT | J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-07-19 | C+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| HLIO | Helios Technologies, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-10 | C |
| FLUX | Flux Power Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-02-10 | D |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-01-27 | B |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| EMR | Emerson Electric Co. | Q3 2021 | 2021-08-04 | B+ |
| FSS | Federal Signal Corporation | Q1 2018 | 2018-05-12 | A |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-07-30 | F |
OGI · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that the company is CURRENTLY FAILING TO SERVE DEMAND IT ALREADY HAS — real buyers being turned away, etc., because they can't supply, AND already spending or...YES The transcript shows management describing a current situation where demand is outstripping supply ("we have been really tight on our supply. Our demand was outstripping our supply"), leading to turning away or limiting sales to certain provinces ("we were really stealing from 1 pocket to the other as we're trying to balance the demand to what available capacity we had" and limiting SHRED distribution). This is material, as it affects their ability to serve existing customers fully.
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company currently failing to serve demand it already has, and already spending or committing to remove that limit. YES The transcript shows clients securing space in take-or-pay arrangements because of tight capacity, indicating unserved demand from existing buyers. Management notes capacity is well utilized and they are hiring staff to accommodate higher forecasted demand, confirming they are already acting to close the gap. This situation is material given the backlog growth and emphasis on availability over price.
BRBR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is whether management describes the company currently failing to serve demand it already has, and already spending or committing to remove that limit. NO The transcript shows ongoing capacity constraints and tight supply dynamics, with management noting they are holding back on marketing/promotions due to limited supply and that they lost customers in prior years due to capacity.