Someone else's clock has started running against them: the company is being paid to solve a problem that is already cost
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes counterparties already losing something real and ongoing, with a running meter, and that they are acting like it. The transcript discusses Ares Capital's business of direct lending. The question is whether management conveys that borrowers/partners are incurring accumulating losses because they don't have what Ares provides, and that this is visible in behavior. Let's scan for relevant statements. Kipp deVeer mentions market volatility, but that's affecting markets. He says "we feel good about our positioning and the fundamental long-term drivers of growth... North American private equity dry powder... at near record levels and larger companies are seeing the value in seeking private capital solutions. In addition, we expect the continued volatility in the liquid capital markets will lead to increased demand from issuers for private credit solutions as we can deliver more certainty in these uncertain times." This is about demand driven by market conditions, but not necessarily counterparties losing money while they wait. It's more about them seeking certainty. No running meter described. Mitch discusses portfolio acquisitions and the Annaly deal. He mentions "familiarity with a significant percentage of the investments" and due diligence. That's about Ares's advantage, not counterparty loss. Penni discusses rate sensitivity and how rising rates benefit Ares. That's about Ares, not counterparties. The question asks if management describes that counterparties are already losing something real and ongoing until they get what Ares provides. For a lender, the counterparty is the borrower. Borrowers might need capital for growth or acquisitions. But does management describe borrowers as having a running meter? They mention private equity dry powder and M&A activity, but that's about opportunity, not loss. They say "private equity funds have 5-year investment period... they can take a wait-and-see approach, but you can't take a wait-and-see approach forever." That suggests pressure on PE funds to deploy capital, but that's about their own investment period, not necessarily a loss that accumulates each period they don't borrow. However, the context is that PE firms have a limited time to invest their funds. That could be seen as a clock running on them.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES ARE ALREADY LOSING SOMETHING REAL AND ONGOING — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity of their own — FOR AS LONG AS...YES The transcript shows management describing customers' ongoing pain from labor shortages and broken supply chains that prevent them from handling demand, with customers actively clamoring for faster deployments and wanting the system as quickly as possible.
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes that their counterparties are already losing something real and ongoing — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity — for as long as they do...
GTES · Q4 2021 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES ARE ALREADY LOSING SOMETHING REAL AND ONGOING — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity of their own — FOR AS LONG AS...