Someone else's clock has started running against them: the company is being paid to solve a problem that is already cost
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2017 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes that counterparties are already losing something real and ongoing for as long as they do not have what the company provides, and that this is visible in their behavior. Look for specific instances. The transcript discusses various programs, but I need to find a situation where the customer is incurring costs or losses because they lack Triumph's product, and they are actively chasing Triumph. One example: The 747-8 program. Triumph is delivering ship-sets. The customers are Boeing? Actually, Triumph supplies to Boeing. The transcript mentions that Triumph had performance issues but recovered. Not about counterparties losing. Another: The G650 program. Triumph delivers wings to Gulfstream. They are ramping up. Not clear. The Global 7000: Triumph is helping Bombardier get test aircraft in the air. They are working on resolution of commercial discussions. Not a running meter. Often, management describes the value of their products but not a specific counterparty cost. Look for statements like "customers are pressing for earlier delivery" or "they are racing" etc. In the Q&A, Dan mentions that on the C-17, Product Support is seeing traffic because they cycle thrust reversers and they call asking for support. That is a situation where the customer (military) is experiencing wear and needs repairs. But is that a running meter? They are spending money on repairs? Actually, they need the product to avoid downtime. But is it described as an accumulating loss? They are calling for support because they need it. The transcript says: "We see uptake on C-17 on the Product Support side. They're calling us and asking us for support, I'll say, on thrust reversers. It's quite remarkable. They cycle the thrust reversers at altitude on that plane based on some of their mission profile. So, they really bang them. And so, we're seeing traffic there." This suggests that the military is experiencing wear and needs Triumph's repair services. But is it a running meter? The customers are losing something because they don't have the repair? Possibly, but it's not clearly stated that they are losing money or output. It's more that they need the service. Another example: The Embraer E2 program. Triumph has delivered 8 aircraft, production ramping. Not a running meter. Perhaps the best is the G650 program? No.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
SYM · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES ARE ALREADY LOSING SOMETHING REAL AND ONGOING — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity of their own — FOR AS LONG AS...YES The transcript shows management describing customers' ongoing pain from labor shortages and broken supply chains that prevent them from handling demand, with customers actively clamoring for faster deployments and wanting the system as quickly as possible.
CRL · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is whether management describes that their counterparties are already losing something real and ongoing — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity — for as long as they do...
GTES · Q4 2021 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that ITS COUNTERPARTIES ARE ALREADY LOSING SOMETHING REAL AND ONGOING — money, output, access, standing, time, or an opportunity of their own — FOR AS LONG AS...