The company is outgrowing its own explanations: management keeps telling investors the reported numbers are not the busi
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management conveys that the reported results do not represent the business as it is actually running today. The key is whether management indicates that the reported period is stale relative to the operating present, with concrete evidence of current activity ahead of the print. In the transcript, Marcel Verbaas says: "Momentum in our business picked up meaningfully since our last earnings call in early May. As we reported this morning, RevPAR grew 2% in the second quarter as compared to 2019, marking the first quarter since the onset of the pandemic where quarterly RevPAR exceeded the same period in 2019." That's about the reported quarter. Then he says: "We are off to a solid start to the third quarter... Preliminary RevPAR for the month of July was approximately $157... July estimated RevPAR was approximately 4% below the results achieved in July of 2019 and approximately 16% higher than July of 2021." So July is slightly below 2019, but the quarter was above. That doesn't necessarily indicate a gap where the business is ahead of the print. But later, Marcel says: "We have meaningful growth left in our same-property portfolio. Same-property hotel EBITDA in the first half of 2022 was down 7% as compared to the first half of 2019. Seven of our top 10 markets... have yet to fully recover back to 2019 levels... Six of our larger corporate and group-focused hotels... were collectively more than $20 million behind in terms of hotel EBITDA in the first half of 2022 as compared to the first half of 2019." That is about the reported period being behind, not ahead. He then says: "Importantly, our hotels in most of the markets that have lagged thus far are currently experiencing good pickup in both group and corporate transient demand. We believe that this momentum will help us continue to close the EBITDA gap to 2019." That is forward-looking, not a statement that the current business is ahead of the print. Barry Bloom says: "We've been pleased to see resilience in leisure pricing and continue to be optimistic regarding corporate rates, particularly as we achieve higher midweek occupancies and sellouts in a number of our markets on Tuesday and Wednesday nights." That is current trends, but not necessarily a gap.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-01-30 | F |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| NBTX | Nanobiotix S.A. | Q2 2023 | 2023-09-27 | D |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-11 | F |
| VRE | Veris Residential, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-22 | D |
| SOL | ReneSola Ltd | Q3 2022 | 2022-12-01 | C+ |
| FLL | Full House Resorts, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | B |
| OPK | OPKO Health, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-09 | D |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
| PRIM | Primoris Services Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-11 | C+ |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
VRE · Q4 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the reported results for the period do not represent the business the company is actually running today? That the just-reported numbers describe a company ...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the reported period as transitional and not reflective of the current business: the shift to a pure-play multi-family company has already reduced office and hotel exposure while driving multi-family NOI share to 98%, with Haus25 leased at 95% ahead of schedule and same-store NOI guidance of 4-6% for 2023. They explicitly note that earnings variability stems from the ongoing asset sales and reallocation, with the business now positioned for growth as the transformation concludes, and they highlight post-period activity like additional sales and stabilized properties to underscore that the reported numbers capture a pre-transition state.
PFE · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management convey that the reported results do not represent the business the company is actually running today? That the just-reported numbers describe a company that has alread...NO The transcript shows management framing 2023 results as a challenging year with declines driven by COVID products, while positioning 2024 as a year of execution and growth through new priorities like the Seagen acquisition (closed late in 2023 with minimal contribution) and new product launches. This is a standard results-and 2024 outlook discussion, with forward-looking elements on pipeline, margins, and capital allocation rather than indicating the reported period is stale relative to current operations.
PRIM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is whether management conveys that the reported results for Q2 2018 do not represent the business the company is actually running today. Specifically, if the printed period is stale relat...YES The transcript shows management repeatedly framing the Q2 results as a partial picture due to the late June 1 acquisition of Willbros. They note the business is "running as planned," highlight one-month revenue contribution of $1.