Question Bank › Young streak off a low base

Young streak off a low base

Young streak off a low base: a short run of consecutive-period improvement has just started, after a stretch that gave i

Calls Tested
488
Answered YES
29
Hit Rate
5.9%
rare by design

Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) — this company's answers

NO on the Q3 2019 call 2018-11-20 A
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2019 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录来判断。问题问的是管理层是否传达了一个短期、连续改善的时期,大约2-4个连续改善期,并且原因在于公司本身且仍然有效。 从记录中,管理层提到了“连续八个季度EBA增长超过30%”(“Q3 also marked the eight consecutive quarter of greater than 30% growth in our EBAs”),但这是关于EBA的,且是长期记录。还有“Subscription plan ARR has more than doubled on a year-over-year basis for seven out of the last eight quarters.” 这是同比,不是连续环比。 “We had record growth in total ARR and total ARPS. In fact, this is the highest growth quarter for both since we started our business model transition over four years ago.” 这说的是本季度是最高增长,但不是连续改善,而是单季。 “cloud ARR growth” 提到“which helped us posted 36% growth in cloud ARR in the quarter” 这是同比,没有连续。 关于BIM 360,提到“I am excited to share that large customers like AECOM, Arcadis, Swinerton, and Layton have already started adopting our new platform” 但没有明确连续几季改善。 管理层说“We are making terrific progress while remaining committed to our FY 2020 goals.” 但没有明确说连续几季。 “we crossed the 30% mark for the sum of revenue growth and free cash flow margin” 这是累计指标。 看是否有“second, third, fourth period in a row”之类的表述。在记录中,Scott Herren说:“Q3 also marked the eight consecutive quarter of greater than 30% growth in our EBAs.” 这是8个季度,但那是长期,不是年轻。还有“For the past five quarters, our eStore has generated over 20% of the product subscriptions.” 这是连续5个季度,但那是关于eStore份额,且长期。 “We expect the number of M2S subs to increase in Q4 as our maintenance renewal opportunity is higher.” 这是预期。 “We had a strong quarter... built upon the strength of our Q2 results by posting accelerated growth” 这说明Q3比Q2好,但只有两个季度,且没有明确说连续几季。 问题要求“roughly two to four periods in a row”,并且要有一个之前不令人满意的阶段,然后年轻改善。管理层没有明确描述一个之前未impressive的时期,而是整个转型过程中一直在改善。实际上,管理层的说法是“我们开始转型以来,我们取得了进展”,没有说之前有停滞。 另外,关于“young run”的表述,管理层没有用“连续几个季度”这样的语言。比如“We had record growth in total ARR and total ARPS.” 这是单季记录,不是连续。 所以,我认为没有明确传达一个年轻连续改善的故事。答案应为NO。

← Back to the full ADSK analysis

Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, does management convey that the business has NOW PUT TOGETHER A SHORT, STILL-YOUNG RUN OF CONSECUTIVE PERIODS OF REAL IMPROVEMENT \u2014 roughly two to four periods in a row of getting better \u2014 in a part of the business that, until recently, had been giving investors little reason to expect it, AND that the causes of this young run are attached to the company itself and still in force?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey, in whatever form fits the business, ONE coherent story with all three of the following present:\n\n(1) A PRIOR STRETCH THAT WAS UNIMPRESSIVE, AND A RUN THAT IS STILL YOUNG. It is evident from management's own account that before this run began, the relevant part of the business \u2014 or the company as a whole \u2014 had been weak, flat, declining, stalled, unprofitable, or simply not yet performing: a stretch that would have given an outside observer little basis for optimism. Against that backdrop, management now describes a recent succession of periods \u2014 the just-reported period plus one or more immediately before it \u2014 in which things have gotten better each time: for example, orders, sales, volumes, customers, utilization, output, activity, or profitability improving quarter after quarter for the last few quarters; losses narrowing period by period; a recovery or ramp that has now strung together several consecutive periods of progress; or management noting that this is the second, third, or fourth period in a row of improvement. The run must be YOUNG \u2014 recent enough that management still frames it as a change from what came before, not a long-established record \u2014 and it must be grounded in real, already-occurred results in management's own telling, not in guidance or hopes.\n\n(2) THE IMPROVEMENT IS SEQUENTIAL AND CUMULATIVE IN MANAGEMENT'S OWN FRAMING. Management itself connects the recent periods into one building progression \u2014 each period better than, or building on, the one before \u2014 rather than merely comparing against a year-ago period or describing one good quarter in isolation. The form of the linkage may vary (consecutive-quarter language, month-after-month or period-after-period progression, a count of successive improvements, or a plainly described step-by-step climb), so long as the sequence is management's own account of what has already happened.\n\n(3) THE CAUSE BELONGS TO THE COMPANY AND IS STILL RUNNING. When management explains why the run exists, the explanation rests mainly on things attached to the company itself \u2014 a product or offering now selling, customers won or returning, a fix, change, capability, or capacity the company put in place now working, execution or positioning the company improved \u2014 rather than on commodity prices, industry-wide tailwinds, restocking, or one-time events; AND management conveys, directly or plainly in substance, that these same drivers remain in effect now, so the just-reported period is presented as the latest step of something still climbing rather than the end of a bounce.\n\nAnswer NO if the company has been performing well for a long time, so the recent periods are simply continuation of an established good record rather than a young change from an unimpressive stretch. NO if the call describes only one good or improved period with no succession of consecutive periods behind it. NO if the improvement is only against the year-ago period, only in guidance, or only expected rather than already strung together in reported periods. NO if management attributes the run mainly to external forces \u2014 commodity or market prices, industry recovery, weather, restocking, pull-forward, an easy comparison \u2014 or to one-time items or cost cuts on a shrinking business. NO if management itself presents the run as finished, peaking, or likely to pause. NO if the business is still deteriorating, with improvement only promised. NO if the sequential framing appears only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself affirm.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ASO Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Q1 2024 2024-06-11 C+
WRBY Warby Parker Inc. Q1 2024 2024-05-09 A
ASB Associated Banc-Corp Q1 2024 2024-04-25 A
KOPN Kopin Corporation Q4 2023 2024-03-14 C+
OLPX Olaplex Holdings, Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-29 D
MNKD MannKind Corporation Q4 2023 2024-02-27 C
GPRE Green Plains Inc. Q4 2023 2024-02-07 F
SCPH scPharmaceuticals Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-08 B
BMBL Bumble Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-07 F
ALL The Allstate Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-02 C+
GOLD Barrick Gold Corporation Q3 2023 2023-11-02 C
OPAD Offerpad Solutions Inc. Q3 2023 2023-11-01 C
TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. Q4 2023 2023-11-01 B
SBRA Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. Q1 2023 2023-05-04 B
TACT TransAct Technologies Incorporated Q4 2022 2023-03-08 A
TOST Toast, Inc. Q4 2022 2023-02-16 C+
PKOH Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. Q3 2022 2022-11-13 B
SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 C+
OGI OrganiGram Holdings Inc. Q3 2022 2022-07-14 B+
BXP Boston Properties, Inc. Q1 2022 2022-05-03 A
LC LendingClub Corporation Q4 2021 2022-01-26 A
LEG Leggett & Platt, Incorporated Q3 2021 2021-11-02 C
UFI Unifi, Inc. Q4 2021 2021-08-07 B
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Q2 2021 2021-07-29 C+
LRN Stride, Inc. Q1 2019 2018-10-23 B
ORAN Orange SA Q2 2018 2018-07-26 B
AVT Avnet, Inc. Q2 2018 2018-01-25 B
HOLX Hologic, Inc. Q4 2017 2017-11-08 D
SPR Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. Q1 2016 2016-04-29 D

How the model reasoned

WRBY · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
ASB · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
KOPN · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...

More from the question bank

Still getting better as they speakSold out of itselfThe hard part is already doneSecond demand front open and fundedFront, middle, and back of the business all Someone else's clock has started running agaAll questions →
Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.