Young streak off a low base: a short run of consecutive-period improvement has just started, after a stretch that gave i
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2018 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录来判断。问题询问管理层是否传达了一个连贯的故事,包含三个要素:(1) 之前一段令人失望的时期,而现在是一个较短的、连续的改善期;(2) 这种改善在管理层的表述中是连续的、累积的;(3) 这种改善的原因属于公司内部且仍然有效。 我们分析记录。管理层多次提到“Operational Excellence”计划带来的改善,以及国际业务(特别是澳大利亚和Kibali)的产量增加。但需要看是否有一个清晰的连续几个时期的改善,而不仅仅是与去年同期比较。例如,Venkat说“Production from our retained operations was strong at around 1.6 million ounces, up 4% year-on-year.” 这里的改善是与去年同期相比。Ludwig说“We had solid contributions from Iduapriem, Kibali, and there are two mines in Australia. Production was up 5% year-on-year.” 也是同比。 但需要寻找连续几个季度的改善。例如,在提到Kibali时,Graham说“Kibali delivered an excellent result for the quarter and for the first half. The underground ramp-up and continued improvements in throughput and recovery helped boost production to a record 203,000 ounces on 100% prices, a 17% increase from the first quarter.” 这里提到第二季度比第一季度增加17%,但一季度呢?看起来是连续改善。另外,Ludwig提到“the benefits of the Operational Excellence program starting to kick in”,并且说“we have made considerable progress on our efforts”等。 但需要确认是否有一个从“unimpressive stretch”到“young run”的转变。整个电话会议中,管理层强调的是经过投资后现在开始收获成果,比如“2016 and 2017 were reinvestment years as we made positive improvements at our key international assets that we believe would yield systemic, long-term improvements. And this year, we started to reap the benefits of that long-term approach”。所以之前是投资期,现在是收获期。但这是否构成一个“prior stretch that was unimpressive”?管理层没有明确说之前业绩差,而是说投资期。但可能从2020年等角度看,但这里没有具体说明之前有连续几个季度下滑等。 再看具体的数据:公司整体生产,如Venkat说“Production from our retained operations was strong at around 1.6 million ounces, up 4% year-on-year.” 没有提到连续几个季度改善。但提到“we see our production for the full year at the top end of the guided range, and both all-in sustaining and total cash costs trending towards the lower end of the guided range.” 这是指引。 问题要求的是“现在有一个短期、年轻的连续改善期,大约两到四个连续改善期”,并且管理层自己将其串联起来。在记录中,管理层多次提到“Operational Excellence”带来的改善,但并未明确说“连续三个季度改善”之类。例如,在提到国际业务时,说“Production was up 5% year-on-year”,但这是同比。提到Kibali的季度环比,但那是单一对比。 另外,在提到澳大利亚时,Sunrise Dam“production increasing 43% over the previous year” 是同比。 似乎管理层更多的是将今年与去年对比,而不是连续几个时期。而且他们提到“we started to reap the benefits”可能意味着今年是第一个收获年,但并不是说连续几个季度。 注意,在Ludwig的部分,他提到“As you can see, the last five years have been a bit of a journey. From 2013 to 2015, we were really restructuring... 2016 and 2017 were reinvestment years...
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| WRBY | Warby Parker Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-09 | A |
| ASB | Associated Banc-Corp | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | A |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| OLPX | Olaplex Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-29 | D |
| MNKD | MannKind Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-27 | C |
| GPRE | Green Plains Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-07 | F |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| BMBL | Bumble Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | F |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| GOLD | Barrick Gold Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| SBRA | Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-04 | B |
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-16 | C+ |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-13 | B |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-02 | C |
| UFI | Unifi, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-08-07 | B |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| LRN | Stride, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-10-23 | B |
| ORAN | Orange SA | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-26 | B |
| AVT | Avnet, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-01-25 | B |
| HOLX | Hologic, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-08 | D |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
WRBY · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
ASB · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
KOPN · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...