Young streak off a low base: a short run of consecutive-period improvement has just started, after a stretch that gave i
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need answer only YES or NO. Need analyze transcript. Need determine if management conveys young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in part of business previously unimpressive, causes company-attached and still in force. Let's parse. Company Full House Resorts. Q3 2022. They discuss Waukegan opening soon, Chamonix construction. Current results? They mention Q3 was "okay quarter, not great, not awful" operationally. They spend time on new projects. There is mention of property margins year-to-date vs 2019: pre-COVID 13.5% vs today 25.5%. But that's long-term improvement, not young run. They mention insurance costs up, competition, etc. No specific consecutive quarters of improvement in existing business? Let's read carefully. Question asks: "does management convey that the business has NOW PUT TOGETHER A SHORT, STILL-YOUNG RUN OF CONSECUTIVE PERIODS OF REAL IMPROVEMENT — roughly two to four periods in a row of getting better — in a part of the business that, until recently, had been giving investors little reason to expect it, AND that the causes of this young run are attached to the company itself and still in force?" Need answer YES only if all three present. Transcript: Management discusses construction progress, Waukegan about to open, Chamonix. Also "We've also been refurbishing Bronco Billy’s..." "In this past quarter, about half of it was closed... It's currently operating with much less gaming capacity... it wasn't making much [Technical Difficulty] lost a little bit in the quarter if I may, it was about zero. And so that gaming space... will reopen by end of December." That's not improvement yet. They discuss "progressive gaming tax rate in Indiana... sell free play... got $2.1 million" etc. Not run. They mention "new competition", "insurance costs up", "stimulus checks last year" etc. They mention "we did not have a wildfire at Lake Tahoe on Labor Day weekend this year, and so that helped us out." One-time. They mention "we've gotten a good 12 percentage points of property level improvement" vs 2019, but that's broad. Could there be a young run in online sports betting? No, they say online sports books: last year all six earning minimum guarantees; Churchill pulled out; they signed one in Illinois; not yet. Not run. Waukegan is not opened yet. Chamonix not opened.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-06-11 | C+ |
| WRBY | Warby Parker Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-09 | A |
| ASB | Associated Banc-Corp | Q1 2024 | 2024-04-25 | A |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| OLPX | Olaplex Holdings, Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-29 | D |
| MNKD | MannKind Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-27 | C |
| GPRE | Green Plains Inc. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-07 | F |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| BMBL | Bumble Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-07 | F |
| ALL | The Allstate Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C+ |
| GOLD | Barrick Gold Corporation | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | C |
| OPAD | Offerpad Solutions Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-01 | C |
| TEL | TE Connectivity Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2023-11-01 | B |
| SBRA | Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-04 | B |
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-16 | C+ |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-13 | B |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| LC | LendingClub Corporation | Q4 2021 | 2022-01-26 | A |
| LEG | Leggett & Platt, Incorporated | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-02 | C |
| UFI | Unifi, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2021-08-07 | B |
| ESRT | Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-07-29 | C+ |
| LRN | Stride, Inc. | Q1 2019 | 2018-10-23 | B |
| ORAN | Orange SA | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-26 | B |
| AVT | Avnet, Inc. | Q2 2018 | 2018-01-25 | B |
| HOLX | Hologic, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-08 | D |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
WRBY · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
ASB · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...
KOPN · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management conveys a short, still-young run of consecutive periods of real improvement in a part of the business that was previously unimpressive, caused by company-speci...