March 26, 2024 - ZH
Zhihu, often dubbed the "Quora of China", has had a tumultuous journey since its 2021 IPO. After a period of soaring highs, the stock has plummeted, leaving many investors wondering about its future. While the recent financial data paints a picture of struggle, a deeper dive reveals a hidden truth that most analysts seem to be overlooking: Zhihu is quietly building a financial fortress, positioning itself for potentially explosive growth.
At first glance, the numbers appear bleak. Zhihu's revenue growth in the most recent quarter was a paltry -0.034% year-over-year, reflecting a stagnation in its core business. EBITDA remains deep in the red at -1,055,416,512 CNY, and the company continues to operate with a negative profit margin. It's easy to understand why investors have been skittish.
However, a peculiar trend emerges when we analyze Zhihu's balance sheet. Over the past year, Zhihu has been aggressively accumulating cash and short-term investments. This strategic move is reflected in the staggering 5,462,930,000 CNY (approximately $760 million USD) held in cash and short-term investments as of the last quarter. This represents a significant increase from the 3,543,603,000 CNY held at the end of 2019. Even more strikingly, Zhihu's net debt has plunged to -2,060,908,000 CNY, essentially signifying a massive net cash position.
This financial maneuvering might seem counterintuitive for a company still searching for profitability. Why hoard cash when losses are mounting? Here's where our hypothesis comes into play: Zhihu is preparing for a major strategic shift, a bold move that will leverage its substantial cash reserves to fuel rapid expansion and potentially capture a dominant share of the Chinese knowledge-sharing market.
Consider the potential avenues for this expansion. Zhihu could be gearing up for a significant acquisition, swallowing a competitor or a complementary business to bolster its offerings and user base. Alternatively, they could be preparing to launch a new product or feature, requiring a substantial upfront investment to develop and market.
The company's recent 1:6 stock split lends further credence to this theory. While often used to make stocks more accessible to retail investors, stock splits can also signal a company's anticipation of future growth and increased investor interest.
Furthermore, Zhihu boasts a robust community of over 100 million monthly active users, a testament to the platform's popularity and the inherent value of its knowledge-sharing model. This vast user base provides a solid foundation for monetization and growth, particularly if Zhihu can successfully execute its strategic shift.
The chart below illustrates Zhihu's aggressive cash accumulation strategy since 2019.
"Fun Fact: Zhihu's name literally translates to "Do you know?". This seemingly simple question underscores the company's core mission: to connect people with knowledge and empower them to learn and grow. Perhaps, the question "Do you know what Zhihu is up to?" is the one that analysts should be asking, as the answer could reveal a hidden giant on the verge of awakening."
While the future remains uncertain, Zhihu's aggressive cash accumulation suggests a company poised for action. They are playing the long game, patiently building a financial war chest while waiting for the perfect moment to strike. When that moment arrives, Zhihu could very well explode onto the scene, transforming from a struggling underdog into a dominant force in the Chinese tech landscape.