Bought the ticket, hasn't taken the ride: the company has already paid for its next stage and is now waiting to be paid
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2018 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes a situation where spending is done, return is outstanding, and payback is a matter of time, with the outlay large relative to the company. Let's examine the transcript. Key points: - ICP product development: "Over the past quarter, and indeed since the start of 2018, our team has made significant progress on the product development side of ICP." They launched tests, expanded panels. This is R&D investment. But is the spending done? They are still investing. They mention "We tend to continue to invest and further develop into ICP" - so spending is ongoing, not done. - Pathology services: "we continue to invest in our sales force and have hired top notch individuals." They have a 10-member team. They say "revenues from pathology services growing close to 50% from the previous quarter." So they are already seeing returns. They expect continued growth. This is normal investment with returns already coming. - IV-Cell and HemeScreen: These are new technologies. For IV-Cell, they say "commercialization process proceeded in parallel" and they are making strides. For HemeScreen, they launched it in their lab two weeks ago, "we've already received numerous orders" - so returns are starting. They expect revenues in excess of $1 million in 2019. But is the spending done? They developed it internally, but they are still commercializing. The spending on R&D is done, but the return is just starting. However, is this large relative to the company? The company's revenues are small. But the question is about a stage of business they have already paid for but not yet been paid back. For HemeScreen, they have already spent on development, and they are just starting to get orders. But they say "we've already received numerous orders" - so some return is there. But the big return is expected in 2019. Is that a matter of time? They say "we believe that given the market volume and revenue numbers of the current inferior test, that HemeScreen can generate revenues in excess of $1 million in 2019" - that's a projection, not a certainty. But they are working on it. However, the spending on HemeScreen is not described as a large outlay relative to the company. It's an internal development. - The lab expansion: "the lab management successfully expanded it's in-house molecular testing capabilities.
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| XHR | Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-05 | A |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-07-14 | B+ |
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| ALB | Albemarle Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-08 | B |
| PRIM | Primoris Services Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-08-11 | C+ |
| KIM | Kimco Realty Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-26 | B+ |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-19 | B+ |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-22 | C+ |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | Q2 2018 | 2018-02-07 | B |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-10-30 | B+ |
| PDCO | Patterson Companies, Inc. | Q3 2017 | 2017-02-23 | C |
| PSX | Phillips 66 | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-03 | C+ |
| TGI | Triumph Group, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2016-11-03 | C+ |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | C+ |
PRIM · Q2 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes having already spent money or resources for a larger operation, but the revenue from that hasn't arrived yet. YES The transcript shows management describing the Willbros acquisition as a completed outlay: closed June 1, $165 million total paid ($38.4 million cash for shares + $123.2 million debt settlement + $3.1 million fees), net cash $111 million, funded by revolver, then refinanced 220 million term loan. This is treated as already done, not planned. The return is still largely outstanding: only one month of Willbros operations reported ($61 million revenue, $6.8 million gross profit, $2.9 million operating income in June), merger-related expenses $7.
PSX · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management describes having already spent money or resources for a larger operation, but the returns haven't come yet, and they expect them soon as a matter of time. YES Management describes the U.S. Gulf Coast Petrochemicals Project as already substantially paid for: capital spending is “reduced following the completion of the project” and “down significantly” compared with last year, with roughly $1 billion of CapEx no longer available for distribution.
TGI · Q2 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management describes having already spent money or resources for a larger operation that hasn't paid back yet. YES The transcript shows management describing a clear situation matching all three criteria. On slide 13, they report "$126 million" of year-to-date investments in development programs as a completed cash outflow ("used $126 million"), with incremental customer financing providing $100 million offset.