Question Bank › Conversion calendar in hand

Conversion calendar in hand

Conversion calendar in hand: management narrates the coming year as dated deliveries of business already secured

Calls Tested
443
Answered YES
6
Hit Rate
1.4%
rare by design

AngioDynamics, Inc. (ANGO) — this company's answers

NO on the Q1 2024 call 2023-10-04 B
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NO我们根据提供的财报电话会议记录,判断管理层是否在讨论未来四五个季度时,给出了一个具体的时间表,其中包含已经确定或正在进行的业务,并附有大致的时间框架,使得前瞻性叙述看起来像是一个按计划启动的事项列表,而不是对需求的希望。 首先,我们需要检查管理层是否提到了具体的、已经确定的业务项目,并附有时间框架。在电话会议中,管理层提到了几个关键项目: 1. PRESERVE研究:已完成患者入组,计划在2024年第三季度向FDA提交数据,以支持NanoKnife治疗前列腺癌的适应症扩展。这是一个正在进行的研究,但尚未获得批准,属于等待审批的事项,不算“已经确定”的业务。 2. APEX PE研究:已入组75%以上,预计在2024年第二季度末获得PE适应症。这也是一个等待审批的事项。 3. AngioVac的突破性设备认定:已获得,但研究设计尚未最终确定,属于进行中。 4. Auryon的CE认证:预计在接下来几个月内获得,但尚未获得。 5. 第二代AlphaVac:计划在2024年推出,但尚未推出。 6. 国际业务增长:提到国际业务增长26%,但这是已经发生的增长,不是未来时间表。 管理层还提到了其他一些事项,如Auryon用于小血管DVT的导管计划在2025年推出,以及冠状动脉疾病适应症的开发计划,但这些都处于开发阶段,没有具体时间表。 关键点:管理层在讨论未来时,主要依赖于这些临床研究和监管审批的进展,但这些都尚未完成,属于“等待审批”或“进行中”的事项,而不是已经确定的业务。此外,管理层没有明确给出一个时间表,说明这些事项何时会开始贡献收入,而是说“我们期待”、“我们相信”等,更多是希望和预期。 因此,根据标准,这些项目属于“正在追求、谈判、试点而没有承诺,或等待批准、融资或客户决定”的类别,不应计入时间表。管理层也没有将未来叙述呈现为一系列已确定事项的启动时间表,而是更多依赖于需求增长和市场条件。 所以,答案应为NO。

← Back to the full ANGO analysis

Show the exact prompt the model was given
Using ONLY the supplied earnings call transcript and no outside information: On this call, when management talks about the company's NEXT FOUR OR SO QUARTERS, does it lay out a TIMETABLE OF SPECIFIC CONVERSIONS \u2014 identified pieces of business that are ALREADY SECURED OR ALREADY IN MOTION, each attached to an at-least-approximate time frame in which it starts contributing \u2014 so that the forward story reads as a schedule of things turning on, rather than as hopes about demand?\n\nAnswer YES when management's own words convey BOTH of the following as one coherent forward account, in whatever form fits the business:\n\n(1) THE ITEMS ON THE TIMETABLE ARE ALREADY REAL. Management identifies concrete business whose existence is no longer in question \u2014 already won, signed, awarded, ordered, booked, contracted, built, launched, closed, or already ramping \u2014 in whatever form fits the industry: contracted work or orders scheduled for delivery; a facility, capacity, product, service, or location recently completed or opening on a stated timetable and now filling; customers or programs already signed that go live or scale on a described schedule; an acquisition or expansion already closed whose contribution phases in; committed volumes stepping up on agreed dates. One substantial item or several smaller ones together both count. Items still being pursued, negotiated, piloted without commitment, or awaiting approvals, financing, or customer decisions do NOT count toward the timetable.\n\n(2) MANAGEMENT ATTACHES TIMING AND TREATS THE SCHEDULE AS THE FORWARD STORY. Management gives each identified item an at-least-rough time anchor within roughly the coming year (this quarter, next quarter, by mid-year, second half, a named month or season) and presents working through this sequence \u2014 starting, ramping, delivering, onboarding, filling \u2014 as the main driver of where the company's results go from here, conveying directly or plainly in substance that the period just reported does not yet meaningfully reflect these contributions, so today's numbers describe the company before the scheduled conversions land.\n\nAnswer NO if the forward discussion rests mainly on demand strength, market conditions, pipeline, opportunities being pursued, or general optimism, with no dated schedule of secured items. NO if the timetable consists of routine, ordinary-course activity at the company's usual scale \u2014 the normal cadence of openings, orders, or seasonal work it always has \u2014 that management does not present as stepping the company beyond its current level. NO if the named items are contingent on approvals, financing, negotiations, or decisions not yet made, or if the only timing given is vague ('over time', 'in the coming years', 'eventually'). NO if the scheduled items' contributions are already substantially reflected in the reported results. NO if management is chiefly explaining delays, slippage, cancellations, or problems with a previously described schedule. NO if the schedule is assembled only in an analyst's question or model that management does not itself adopt.\n\nUse only the supplied transcript. Answer only YES or NO.

Companies that answered YES

TickerCompanyCallDateCall grade
ESEA Euroseas Ltd. Q4 2022 2023-02-15 C+
SOL ReneSola Ltd Q3 2022 2022-12-01 C+
FLL Full House Resorts, Inc. Q3 2022 2022-11-07 B
FAT FAT Brands Inc. Q4 2021 2022-03-21 F
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation Q3 2017 2017-11-10 A
ESE ESCO Technologies Inc. Q2 2016 2016-05-03 A

How the model reasoned

CPK · Q3 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured business and approximate time frames.
SOL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.
FLL · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management lays out a timetable of specific conversions for the next four or so quarters, with already secured items and approximate time frames.

More from the question bank

Betting on a customer they cannot yet nameGround-level proof points accumulatingWinning more per swing than they used to — aFresh order-of-magnitude reference changeThis quarter could not have been described lOutside actors already movingAll questions →
Not investment advice. Artul.ai publishes AI-generated earnings-call quality grades and expected-volatility estimates — never buy or sell recommendations. We tested over 1,600 predictive hypotheses against 165,000 transcripts; the honest result, including what failed, is documented in our methodology.