Fixed price, unfixed volume: the company is locked into a rate while the amount it can sell against it is climbing
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes a situation where the price/rate/fee is already fixed or contractually set, and the volume is rising or about to rise, with reported results reflecting lower volume. The essence is that the company's economics per unit are settled, and the variable is volume. Scanning the transcript: The discussion covers various topics: trading volumes, SOFR transition, investments, expenses, market data, etc. The key is to find a specific business where the fee per unit is fixed and volume is increasing. One candidate: The SOFR futures and options transition. Management discusses fee waivers and incentives. But the fee waivers are temporary, and the goal is to get RPCs (revenue per contract) to equal historical levels. That suggests the fee per contract is not fixed; it's being adjusted via waivers. So not that. Another: The investment in S&P Dow Jones Indices JV. But that's an investment, not a fee per unit. Another: The clearinghouse collateral. They earn interest on cash and non-cash collateral. The rate they earn is based on Fed funds and they rebate a portion. They keep 25 basis points on cash, and 7 basis points on non-cash. That rate is set (they keep a spread). The volume is the amount of collateral. They described balances declining from Q2 to July. Actually, cash balances declined, non-cash increased. But the rate they keep is fixed (25 bps on cash, 7 bps on non-cash). However, the volume (collateral) is not necessarily rising; cash declined, non-cash increased. The overall collateral might be shifting. But is the volume rising? They said average cash balances were $145B in Q2, ending $136B, and July average $118B, ending $113B. So cash is declining. Non-cash increased from $59B to $81B average, ending $86B, July average $95B, ending $103B. So total collateral? Cash plus non-cash: Q2 average $145+$59? Actually they said non-cash average $81B in Q2? Wait: They said "non-cash collateral, we had $59.2 billion that we earned five basis points on in Q1, that increased to approximately $81 billion average cash balance in Q2." So non-cash average in Q2 was $81B. So total average collateral in Q2: $145B cash + $81B non-cash = $226B. In July, cash average $118B, non-cash average $95B, total $213B. So total collateral is actually declining. So volume is not rising.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAH | Noah Holdings Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-30 | D |
| AES | The AES Corporation | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-03 | C+ |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| MNKD | MannKind Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-27 | C |
| PUMP | ProPetro Holding Corp. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-21 | C+ |
| JLL | Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-02 | F |
| GVP | GSE Systems, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-15 | D |
| SLF | Sun Life Financial Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-12 | B |
| BRX | Brixmor Property Group Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-02 | A |
| TACT | TransAct Technologies Incorporated | Q4 2022 | 2023-03-08 | A |
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-15 | C+ |
| CEIX | CONSOL Energy Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-07 | B |
| CHE | Chemed Corporation | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-01 | B+ |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-03 | C |
| SYM | Symbotic Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-08-01 | B+ |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | Q4 2022 | 2022-06-22 | B |
| VNRX | VolitionRx Limited | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | F |
| BXP | Boston Properties, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-03 | A |
| FAT | FAT Brands Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-21 | F |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| RNW | ReNew Energy Global Plc | Q2 2022 | 2021-11-18 | C |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital Inc. | Q2 2021 | 2021-08-10 | B+ |
| ALB | Albemarle Corporation | Q3 2018 | 2018-11-08 | B |
| KIM | Kimco Realty Corporation | Q2 2018 | 2018-07-26 | B+ |
| HLX | Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B+ |
| ATI | Allegheny Technologies Incorporated | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | B |
| FI | Fiserv, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-27 | C |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | Q3 2017 | 2017-11-10 | A |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| IONS | Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-09 | C |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-04-30 | A |
| ABR | Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-03-03 | B+ |
| GPOR | Gulfport Energy Corporation | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-14 | A |
ABR · Q4 2016 → YESThe question is about whether management describes a situation where the price/rate/fee is already fixed, but the quantity/volume is rising, so results scale with volume. YES The transcript shows management describing the Agency Business servicing portfolio at $13.6 billion with a fixed 48 basis point weighted average servicing fee that is already contracted and recurring. They explicitly note the portfolio is growing through recent originations, including $700 million closed in December, which will drive higher servicing income in Q 1. Management states they expect the portfolio to generate over $65 million annually and references growth from 2015 levels, indicating the reported Q4 results reflect a lower average volume during the quarter while the settled economics now scale with the increasing volume arriving in Q1.
FIX · Q1 2017 → YESThe question is about whether management describes a situation where the price/rate/fee is already fixed, but the quantity/volume is rising, so results scale with volume. YES The transcript shows management describing a situation where pricing is stable and contracts (backlog) lock in rates, while volume is rising through backlog growth and upcoming organic work. The Q1 results reflect lower seasonal volume, with the backlog supporting higher throughput ahead. This fits the criteria of settled rates on meaningful contracted business with 13% backlog increase driving volume step-up.
CHE · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is about whether management describes a situation where the price/rate/fee is already fixed, but the quantity/volume is rising, so results scale with volume. YES Management describes Medicare reimbursement rates as already fixed by regulation (CMS), with the volume side now rising through a first significant expansion of clinical staff and patient capacity since the pandemic, plus strengthening admissions and weekly ADC growth in the second half. The reported quarter reflects lower volume (ADC down 4.