Quietly replacing the old way: customers are switching to the company from an entrenched alternative, and the switching
The model's full reasoning — Q1 2024 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes customers switching from an entrenched alternative to their product, and that this switching is still early with most potential switchers not yet converted. Let's analyze the transcript for evidence of such a substitution phenomenon. Key points from the call: - NanoKnife: They are enrolling in PRESERVE study for prostate cancer. They mention that patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer are looking for new treatment options that better preserve quality of life. They believe NanoKnife will be the best option. They talk about growth in NanoKnife, but do they explicitly say customers are switching from an incumbent? They mention "focal therapy" and "other treatment options" but not specifically that they are displacing an entrenched alternative. They talk about the market potential ($700M US, $2B global) but not about current switching. - Mechanical thrombectomy: AngioVac and AlphaVac. They mention that the venous thrombectomy market is highly competitive and contains numerous unmet clinical gaps. They say they will be one of top three players. They talk about driving adoption to catheter-based interventions and moving care away from lytic-based therapies. This suggests a shift from lytic-based therapies to catheter-based interventions. But is that described as currently happening? They say "we will also drive adoption" and "help move care in the VTE space away from historic lytic-based therapies." That sounds like a future goal, not a present-tense reality. They also mention that AlphaVac is gaining traction, but not explicitly that customers are switching from an incumbent. - Auryon: They talk about gaining share because physicians are gaining confidence. They mention data that shows Auryon can effectively fracture medial arterial calcification. They say "We continue to gain share" - that implies they are taking share from competitors. But do they specify an incumbent? They mention "our competitors" but not a specific entrenched alternative. They also talk about launching catheters for small vessel DVT in 2025, and pursuing CAD indication. That's future. - Ports: They say "our ports, which grew over 22%, illustrate the strength and leadership of our vascular access product portfolio." They mention competing against a "really great company" (likely meaning a dominant player).
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRGO | Freightos Limited | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-20 | C+ |
| IFS | Intercorp Financial Services Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-14 | C+ |
| NICE | NICE Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-02-22 | B+ |
| APPS | Digital Turbine, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2023-08-08 | D |
| SPT | Sprout Social, Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-08-04 | B+ |
| MBLY | Mobileye Global Inc. | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-28 | B+ |
| IMAX | IMAX Corporation | Q2 2023 | 2023-07-26 | B+ |
| PFIE | Profire Energy, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2023-05-13 | B |
| TOST | Toast, Inc. | Q4 2022 | 2023-02-16 | C+ |
| BLZE | Backblaze, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-11 | D |
| SIBN | SI-BONE, Inc. | Q3 2022 | 2022-11-07 | C+ |
| TMCI | Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-13 | B+ |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-02 | B+ |
| BIG | Big Lots, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-27 | F |
| FLYW | Flywire Corporation | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-14 | B+ |
| ZVIA | Zevia PBC | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | B |
| IRTC | iRhythm Technologies, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-07 | C+ |
| RELY | Remitly Global, Inc. | Q4 2021 | 2022-03-02 | B |
| GTES | Gates Industrial Corporation plc | Q4 2021 | 2022-02-07 | C+ |
| RNW | ReNew Energy Global Plc | Q2 2022 | 2021-11-18 | C |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | Q1 2018 | 2018-04-24 | A |
| INST | Instructure's | Q4 2017 | 2018-02-12 | B+ |
| HOLX | Hologic, Inc. | Q4 2017 | 2017-11-08 | D |
| BLKB | Blackbaud, Inc. | Q1 2017 | 2017-05-02 | B+ |
| EVBN | Evans Bancorp, Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-06 | B+ |
| BDC | Belden Inc. | Q4 2016 | 2017-02-02 | B |
BLKB · Q1 2017 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES Management describes customers switching from entrenched alternatives (legacy hardware systems, older Raiser's Edge versions, standalone point solutions) to Blackbaud's cloud solutions like NXT, with examples of recent replacements and migrations already occurring. They also note that much of the potential remains, as the installed base of legacy methods is still large 25% of subscription revenue, and they describe the opportunity as "really early days" with substantial distance left to run. This fits the criteria of a present-tense substitution pattern in the market, not just future hope. The high retention on their own base (93%) combined with declining maintenance revenue shows the shift is active and ongoing, while new wins against competitors and legacy alternatives are happening now. The TAM of $7 billion with hundreds of thousands of addressable customers reinforces that switching is early-stage relative to the total opportunity. The answer is YES. The question is answered with YES. The question is answered with YES.
BLZE · Q3 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing current customer switches from entrenched alternatives (AWS for urlscan.io; Synology NAS/on-prem for Fiture; broader AWS and on-prem users), with these as real, ongoing patterns. They explicitly note that much of the potential remains ("so much of the world's data is still on-premises" and "customers that are inside of AWS and others"), confirming the substitution is early-stage relative to the large installed base. This is conveyed directly in Gleb's responses as a present-tense reality, not merely anticipated. The two examples plus the broader opportunity framing establish a coherent substitution underway, with the company being substituted in. The investor question on percentages and Gleb's reply reinforce the pattern without contradicting the current movement. No single-event or future-only framing applies here. Thus, both conditions are met.
APPS · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is: Does management describe that customers are currently SWITCHING TO THE COMPANY FROM AN ENTRENCHED ALTERNATIVE THEY PREVIOUSLY RELIED ON, and that this switching is still in its early ...YES The transcript shows management describing customers shifting from Apple/Google app stores to DT Hub and SingleTap-enabled alternative distribution as an ongoing, early-stage substitution. Bill Stone notes the company has already launched DT Hub with four U.S. operators and is generating revenue today, while highlighting "increasing pressure on the duopoly" and 5 monetization ways for SingleTap that enable publishers to direct-download apps outside traditional stores. He explicitly calls it "very early days and not yet material to our overall results" and "early innings," confirming the installed base of the old way remains large and the switch is just beginning with incremental RPD gains from devices engaging the new platform. This meets the criteria of a present-tense substitution underway, with the company positioned as the alternative being adopted.